POPULATION GROWTH, FOOD SECURITY, AND SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Abstract

In the context of rapid global population growth and increasing climate instability, ensuring food security is becoming a critical challenge at both the global and regional levels. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the current global food crisis and examines statistical data on global food production and distribution. Particular attention is paid to the state and specific features of agricultural development in the Republic of Kazakhstan, with a focus on the Kostanay region as one of the country’s key grain-producing areas. Based on long-term climatic observations and grain yield data, a stochastic forecasting model of crop yield is developed, taking into account the influence of climatic factors. The research findings make it possible to identify the main threats and constraints to the sustainable development of agriculture under climate change conditions, as well as to substantiate directions for adaptation measures aimed at enhancing the economic sustainability of agricultural production and strengthening regional food security. The practical significance of the study lies in the potential application of the obtained results in the development of regional programs for agro-industrial development and the adaptation of the agricultural sector of the regional economy to climate change.