ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF AGRICULTURAL ADAPTATION STRATEGIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE CONTEXT OF AGRARIAN SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION

Abstract

The article presents a comprehensive economic analysis of current climate change and its consequences. Under conditions of increasing climatic variability, agriculture faces growing uncertainty in production processes, which necessitates the development of scientifically grounded adaptation strategies aimed at enhancing the resilience of the agricultural sector. The purpose of this study is to develop and economically substantiate a strategy for agricultural adaptation to climate change based on the modernization of the material and technical base and the optimization of production processes. The object of the study is agricultural production in the Kostanay region under conditions of climatic transformation. The subject of the study comprises the economic mechanisms and instruments for adapting agriculture to climate change.

The research analyzes the impact of climatic factors on the timing of agrotechnical operations and the economic performance of agricultural production. Particular attention is paid to assessing the effectiveness of upgrading the machinery and tractor fleet as a key adaptation instrument that contributes to reducing production risks and enhancing the resilience of agricultural systems. The study employs methods of economic and statistical analysis, comparative assessment, economic and mathematical modeling, and scenario forecasting.

The results indicate that the introduction of high-performance agricultural machinery significantly reduces the duration of sowing and harvesting operations, minimizes the adverse effects of unfavorable climatic conditions, and increases the economic efficiency of production. It is substantiated that, despite the high capital intensity of machinery modernization, this instrument possesses substantial adaptive potential and requires systematic government support. The findings of the study can be used in the development of regional programs for agricultural adaptation to climate change, as well as in the formulation of government support mechanisms for the agricultural sector.