AGROCLIMATIC DETERMINANTS OF WHEAT YIELD AND PROFITABILITY
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.52269/SKVC2621303Keywords:
climate change, wheat production, agricultural economics, production profitability, agroclimatic factors, yield variability, climate risks, economic efficiency, yield forecasting, Northern KazakhstanAbstract
Climate change has become a major challenge for agricultural production, particularly in regions
characterized by high climatic variability and frequent weather extremes. This study investigates the
relationship between climatic factors, wheat yield, and economic performance in the Kostanay Region of
Northern Kazakhstan during 1990–2024. The research combines correlation analysis, regression modeling
and geospatial analysis to identify the key drivers of yield variability and to develop a predictive framework for
agricultural decision-making.
The results demonstrate that precipitation during the growing season, particularly in June and July, has
the strongest positive influence on wheat productivity, whereas increasing summer temperatures negatively
affect yields. The analysis also reveals a strong relationship between yield levels and economic indicators,
including profitability and profit per unit of production. A Random Forest model achieved high forecasting
accuracy (R² = 0.79), identifying July precipitation, June temperature, precipitation concentration, and drought
duration as the most important predictors.
The findings highlight the importance of climate-informed forecasting tools for improving agricultural
resilience and support the development of adaptive strategies aimed at reducing climate-related risks in
Northern Kazakhstan.
