STATISTICAL AND ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD SECURITY IN THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN

Abstract

In the current context, climate change is one of the key factors determining the sustainability of national agri-food systems and the prospects for ensuring food security. The highest level of vulnerability is typical of countries where agriculture develops under conditions of limited land and water resources, high dependence of production on natural and climatic conditions, and continuing demographic growth. The Republic of Tajikistan belongs to this group of countries. More than 90% of its territory is occupied by mountainous areas, agricultural land is constrained by natural conditions, and the efficiency of crop production is largely determined by the stability of water supply formed by glacial and river resources. At the same time, rising air temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, glacier retreat, the increasing frequency of droughts, and intensifying climate variability create additional risks for the sustainable development of the agricultural sector and the provision of food to the population. The purpose of this study is to conduct a comprehensive statistical and economic assessment of the impact of climate change on food security in the Republic of Tajikistan by analyzing long-term trends in climatic, production, and socio-economic indicators, as well as by quantitatively assessing the relationships among them. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the comprehensive statistical and economic assessment of the relationships between climate change, agricultural development, and selected food security indicators in the Republic of Tajikistan based on long-term comparable series of official statistics. Unlike most previously published studies, the analysis is carried out within a unified system of climatic, production, and socio-economic indicators, which makes it possible to identify quantitative patterns in the formation of food security under climate change. The practical significance of the study is determined by the potential use of its results in improving state agrarian policy, developing national programs for adapting agriculture to climate change, assessing food security risks, increasing the efficiency of land and water resource use, and formulating long-term strategies for the sustainable development of the agri-food complex of the Republic of Tajikistan.