ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY OF FOOD SUPPLY IN THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN AMID CLIMATE AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE

Abstract

This article examines the economic sustainability of food supply in the Republic of Tajikistan under the combined effects of climate and demographic change. The study extends the statistical and economic assessment of long-term transformations in the country’s agricultural sector and shifts the focus from the analysis of individual climatic and production indicators to evaluating the capacity of agricultural production to meet the food needs of a growing population. The empirical basis of the study comprises data from the Agency on Statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan, FAOSTAT, the World Bank, and NASA POWER. The sustainability of food supply is assessed through the interrelationship between population dynamics, cereal production, crop yields, sown areas, climatic parameters, and indicators of the economic accessibility and affordability of food. Particular attention is paid to per capita grain production as an indicator reflecting the combined effects of changes in agricultural production capacity and demographic pressure. The research methodology includes time-series analysis, assessment of variability and interrelationships among indicators, estimation of econometric relationships, and scenario-based calculations. The study aims to determine the contribution of production, climatic, and demographic factors to changes in the level of food supply, as well as to estimate the required increase in cereal yields needed to offset population growth and the potential intensification of climate-related risks. The findings can be used to substantiate policy and strategic measures aimed at improving agricultural productivity and strengthening the resilience of the national agri-food system.